Market Risk Scenario Dashboard — EBA 2025 Stress Test
Explore the ECB-prescribed market risk parameters for the 2025 EU-wide stress test adverse scenario. Equity shocks, interest rate curves, FX moves, credit spreads, commodity prices, and volatility surfaces — all in one interactive dashboard.
−66%Worst EU equity shock (Hungary)
+127 bpsEUR 3M swap rate shock
+65%Natural gas price surge
+233%VSTOXX 3M vol shock
Equity & Commodities
Interest Rates
FX
Credit Spreads
Volatility
−66.3%Worst EU equity: Hungary
−60.7%US (S&P 500) shock
+65.3%Natural gas price surge
EU Countries
Global / Regional
All
Equity Index Shocks — Adverse Scenario
Relative change from starting point (%). Sorted from most to least severe.
Commodity Price Shocks
Deviation from starting point (%)
+127 bpsEUR 3M swap shock
+79 bpsEUR 10Y swap shock
InvertedAdverse yield curve slope
Interest Rate Swap Shocks by Currency
Absolute change in basis points across tenors (3M, 1Y, 5Y, 10Y)
| Currency / Region | 3M | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y |
|---|
+64.8%Largest: EUR/RUB
+36.5%EUR/TRY shock
0.0%EUR/USD, EUR/GBP unchanged
FX Shocks — Euro Against Other Currencies
Relative change (%). Positive = EUR appreciation. Major reserve pairs held constant.
+179 bpsItaly / Spain / Greece 10Y sovereign
+276 bpsEU corp financial (high yield)
+151 bpsBulgaria / Hungary sovereign 10Y
Sovereign Spreads
Corporate Spreads
Sovereign Credit Spread Shocks — 10Y Tenor
Absolute change in basis points. Sorted by severity.
+233%VSTOXX 3M shock
+247%EM equity vol 3M
+158%EUR IR 1Mx1Y vol shock
Equity Volatility
Interest Rate Volatility
Equity Implied Volatility Shocks
Relative change (%) in implied volatility from starting point
For the macroeconomic scenario data — GDP, unemployment, inflation, and real estate — use our EBA 2025 Stress Test Scenario Explorer. To understand how these shocks translated into bank capital depletion, read our 2025 results analysis.
Source: ECB market risk scenario for the 2025 EU-wide banking sector stress test (updated 12 February 2025). All shocks are applied in the first year of the adverse scenario. Baseline assumes no change in stock prices and iTraxx follows risk premia at euro area level. This tool is provided for informational purposes only by Generation Impact Global. It does not constitute financial or regulatory advice.
